Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes EUR/USD and USD/JPY outlook.
EUR/USD has some, but only limited room to fall in Q4
EUR/USD may now be priced for the ECB and Fed to do nothing, and for the US to grow much faster than the Eurozone. Strong US data isn’t having as much impact in October as it did in September, and we may be twiddling our thumbs waiting for something to change. I’m tempted to conclude that EUR/USD has some, but only limited room to fall in Q4.
USD/JPY continues to be dragged higher by yields. That suggests that if we do see a further rise in US yields, and nothing more than a shift in the BoJ’s inflation forecast at the October 31 BoJ meeting, another spike above 150 is almost inevitable. The Yen has a good chance of being one of 2024’s top-performing currencies but forecasting when USD/JPY will peak is as easy, or as difficult, as picking when US 10-year yields will peak.