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USD/MXN trades below the 20-DMA ahead of Fed’s monetary policy decision

September 19, 2023| Forex Market


  • USD/MXN down 0.37%, trading at 17.0685, as the Mexican Peso recovers some of its losses.
  • Investors turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where updated economic projections are expected.
  • Preliminary data from INEGI suggests the Mexican economy likely grew 3.4% YoY in August.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) erases some of its Monday’s losses versus the Greenback (USD) and reclaims the 20-day Moving Average (DMA) despite a firm US Dollar (USD), with traders bracing for tomorrow’s US Federal Reserve’s decision. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN is trading at 17.0685, down 0.37%.

USD/MXN trades lower despite a strong US Dollar, as investors await updated economic projections from the Federal Reserve

Investor sentiment has turned negative ahead of the Fed meeting. During the last economic projections, the Fed anticipated 1% economic growth, a 4.1% unemployment rate, 3.2% PCE inflation, 3.9% core PCE inflation, and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) peaking at 5.60%. These projections will be updated and play a crucial role in shaping the Fed’s future policy decisions.

In the meantime, housing data was revealed and came worse than expected. Housing starts slumped 11.3% last month, the lowest level since June 2020. Data for July was revised lower to show starts accelerating to a rate of 1.447 million units instead of the previously reported 1.452 million units. Meanwhile, Building Permits jumped 6.9% above the prior month’s 0.1% expansion, the most significant rise in six months.

Meanwhile, US Treasury bond yields are trading in positive territory, with the 10-year note coupon yielding 4.337% amidst a US 20-year bond auction, while the Greenback, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is firm at around 105.12.

Across the border, the Mexican economic docket revealed a poll by the Instituto Nacional de Estadisitca Geografia e Informatica (INEGI), which shows the economy likely grew 3.4% in August compared with the same month a year earlier, in a preliminary estimate from the statistics agency.

USD/MXN Price Analysis: Technical outlook

At the beginning of the week, the USD/MXN could not crack the 100-DMA at 17.2091, opening the door for a pullback, which witnessed the pair breaching the 20-DMA at 17.1075. With that said, and with price action below most Moving Averages, the exotic pair could again test the psychological 17.00 figure. However, it must challenge the 50-DMA at 17..0101 before sliding towards the figure and beyond. For a bullish resumption, the USD/MXN must reclaim the 100-DMA, followed by the 17.5000 figure.


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