Nonfarm Payrolls surprised expectations to the downside in October. This brought the USD lower from its high ground. Economists at TD Securities analyze Greenback’s outlook.
A topping out of 10Y yields and US rates vol will help revive the high-quality carry currencies
Both the headline jobs number and wage data came on the softer side, reinforcing the disinflation narrative. This sets the wheels in motion for peak rates, weak USD, lower rates vol and a revival of the carry theme.
Continued moderation in front-end yields should support the low yielders in G10 and Asia whereas a topping out of 10Y yields and US rates vol will help revive the high-quality carry currencies. We continue to like BRL and MXN.