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Remains capped below the 1.0900 mark amid overbought condition

November 15, 2023| Forex Market


  • EUR/USD remains capped below the 1.0900 barrier on Wednesday.
  • The pair holds above the 50- and 100-hour EMAs with the overbought RSI condition.
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at the 1.0895-1.0900 area; the initial support level is located at 1.0800.

The EUR/USD pair surges above 1.0850 but faces rejection below the 1.0900 mark during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The weaker-than-expected US inflation data exerts some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and supports the EUR/USD pair. That being said, the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is done with the hiking cycle this year and expect to deliver rate cuts earlier in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. The major pair currently trades around 1.0878, losing 0.03% on the day.

According to the four-hour chart, the major pair holds above the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting the path of least resistance to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above 50. However, the overbought RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD appreciation.

The 1.0895-1.0900 region acts as an immediate resistance level for the pair. The mentioned level is the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and a psychological round figure. Further north, the next barrier is seen at 1.0930 (high of August 22). The additional upside filter to watch is a high of August 30 at 1.0945, en route to 1.1000 (a round figure and a high of August 11).

On the flip side, the initial support level is located near the psychological round mark at 1.0800. The next contention level will emerge at a high of November at 1.0756, followed by 1.0713 (the 50-hour EMA), and 1.0672 (the 100-hour EMA). A breach of the latter will see a drop to a low of November 3 at 1.0615.

EUR/USD four-hour chart


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