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NZD/USD continues to test into 2023 lows, a drop to 0.5800 could be on the cards

October 20, 2023| Forex Market


  • The NZD/USD is trading into the low end as the Kiwi tests 11-month lows against the Greenback.
  • NZ Trade Balance figures saw little play as the numbers showed little change, for better or for worse.
  • New Zealand’s Labour Day holiday on Monday will have Kiwi traders focusing on Tuesday’s US PMI release.

The NZD/USD is testing the waters near 0.5830, trading flat for Friday and stuck to the bottom end in the near-term. New Zealand’s Trade Balance figures on Thursday did little to spark faith in the NZD, while broader markets continue to focus on Federal Reserve (Fed) talking points.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance showed little change in the import-export balance for the small Antipodean nation, with September’s annualized Trade Balance printing at $-15.33B compared to August’s $-15.52B.

New Zealand Trade Balance arrives at -$15.33B YoY in September vs. $-15.52B prior

NZ Exports ticked down to $4.87B, with the previous figure seeing a minor downside revision to $4.97B from $4.99B, and NZ Imports likewise showed a decline alongside a revision; NZ Imports for September printed at $7.2B versus August’s $7.24B (revised from $7.28B).

New Zealand will be taking a long weekend with Kiwi markets dark on Monday for the Labour Day holiday, and the next major datapoint for the NZD/USD pair will be Tuesday’s US Preliminary Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) reading for September, where markets are forecasting a minor downtick in both the manufacturing and services components.

NZD/USD Technical Outlook

The Kiwi remains firmly entrenched in yearly lows against the US Dollar after seeing a rejection from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.5950, and a bearish 200-day SMA is rolling lower to provide medium-term technical resistance from 0.6150.

With the NZD/USD trading into fresh lows for 2023, downside technical support remains thin, and a bearish extension could open up the way for an eventual challenge of 2022’s lows near the 0.5500 handle.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD Technical Levels


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