- GBP/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Monday.
- Rebounding US bond yields help the USD to stall the post-NFP slump and cap gains.
- Bets that the Fed is done hiking rates keeps a lid on the USD and should limit losses.
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates Friday’s strong move up its highest level since September 20. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2375 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, bounces off a six-week trough touched on Friday in the wake of a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields and acts as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. Any meaningful USD recovery, however, seems elusive in the wake of firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to hold interest rates steady again at its December meeting.
The bets were reaffirmed by softer-than-expected US macro data released on Friday. In fact, the closely-watched US NFP report showed that the economy added 150K jobs in October as compared to 180K anticipated. Adding to this, the previous month’s reading was also revised down to 297K from 336K reported originally. Furthermore, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to a five-month low of 51.8 in October from 53.6 previous.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop should hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and continue to lend some support to the GBP/USD pair That said, the Bank of England’s (BoE) bleak economic outlook, saying that the economy risks falling into recession next year, might cap gains for the major pair. Moreover, investors seem convinced that the UK central bank’s next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut.
In fact, the markets have now fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut by August 2024, which, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of last week’s strong move up. Market participants now look to the release of the UK Construction PMI for some impetus. Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from Fed Governor Lisa Cook and BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s scheduled speeches.
Technical levels to watch