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Focus turns to inflation data after Dollar’s rebound

November 10, 2023| Forex Market


The key report for the week will be on Tuesday with the US Consumer Price Index. Additionally, more US inflation data is scheduled for Wednesday with the Producer Price Index. The Eurozone will report GDP growth, and the UK will release employment and inflation data. Australia will also release jobs data. The bond market and geopolitics will continue to be important factors influencing the market.

Here is what you need to know for next week: 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose during the five days of the week, but it was not enough to completely erase last week’s losses. A correction and Powell’s comments helped the Greenback, which was not affected by signs of gradual loosening in the labor market. With the US economy outperforming the Euro area, the slide of the US Dollar is poised to be limited. The DXY climbed from six-week lows under 105.00 towards 106.00.

Next week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday will be closely watched. A surprise here has the potential to be a game changer.

The bond market will remain in focus. A weak 30-year Treasury auction triggered sharp moves, as did Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s comments. The rebound in yields could signal the end of the bond rally that started in October.

European Central Bank (ECB) officials offered different perspectives on the future. In the near term, the ECB is not expected to raise rates further, and the debate is about when they will start cutting rates amid a negative economic outlook. Eurostat will release employment and growth data on Tuesday.

EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.0700 and pulled back, finding support above 1.0650. The pair offers mixed signals. The upside faces a strong barrier around 1.0800, which includes the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The Pound was affected by dovish comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials. Growth data from the third quarter came in above expectations, but only to shows the economy stagnating. Next week, the UK will report employment on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. These numbers will be critical ahead of the next BoE meeting on December 14. GBP/USD retreated to the 20-day SMA around the 1.2200 area, which is a crucial support. A break lower would clear the way for more losses. EUR/GBP posted the highest weekly close since April, around 0.8735.

USD/JPY rose above 151.50 and posted the highest weekly close since 1990. The pair trades at levels compatible with intervention from Japanese authorities.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points, but it was a dovish hike as it signaled that the tightening cycle is over and weighed on the Australian Dollar. Australian yields dropped during the week based on guidance offered by the central bank. On Wednesday, the Q3 Wage Price Index will be released, followed by the employment report on Thursday. The Aussie was the worst performer among majors. AUD/USD erased most of last week’s gains, retreating from the 20-week SMA after being unable to hold above the 0.6500 zone.

NZD/USD pulled back from the 20-week SMA to levels below 0.5900. Consolidation under 0.5850 would expose 2023 lows. The New Zealand Q3 Producer Price Index is due on Friday.

The Chilean Peso was among the biggest losers during the week, with USD/CLP rising from 880.00 to 920.00 after the annual inflation rate in Chile dropped to 5%, increasing expectations of more monetary policy easing.

Crude oil prices fell for the third week in a row due to demand concerns. WTI dropped from above $80.00 and bottomed slightly under $75.00, settling around $77.50.

Gold experienced a significant decline, losing over $50 during the week and dropping to $1,934. This drop can be attributed to higher yields and a stronger Dollar. Similarly, Silver faced resistance around the $23.00 level and subsequently fell to $22.20, marking its lowest close since early October.


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