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EURUSD teases sellers below 1.0400 with eyes on ECB’s Lagarde

November 18, 2022| Forex Market

  • EURUSD struggles for a clear direction after snapping a two-day uptrend the previous day.
  • Sluggish markets challenge EURUSD moves but firmer yields, DXY rebound keeps sellers hopeful.
  • Softer prints of Eurozone inflation, risk-negative catalysts exert downside pressure on prices.
  • ECB President Lagarde needs to defend hawkish policy, show optimism to push back EURUSD bears.

EURUSD lacks clear direction around 1.0365 during early Friday, after printing the first daily loss in three. In doing so, the major currency pair trims the weekly gains amid a sluggish session ahead of a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.

US Dollar’s struggle to justify the rebound in the US Treasury yields from the six-week low appeared to have probed the EURUSD bears of late. Also likely to challenge the pair sellers could be the cautious optimism surrounding US President Joe Biden’s attempt to ease on student loans, as well as the latest survey on the Fed’s next move.

CNBC came out with the news suggesting that the Biden Administration will ask Supreme Court to allow the student loan debt relief program to resume. On the other hand, downbeat prints of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and housing numbers for October might have raised doubts about the recently hawkish Fedspeak.

Furthermore, the latest Reuters poll for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) states that the Federal Reserve will downshift in December to deliver 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike, but a longer period of US central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook.

That said, hawkish Fedspeak and softer Eurozone numbers could be stated for the pair’s latest challenges. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard mentioned on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy is not yet in a range estimated to be sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation. On the same line, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said, “With inflation still high but a lot of monetary policy tightening already in the pipeline, it’s unclear how high the US central bank will need to raise its policy rate.”

Its’ worth noting that a downward revision to the Eurozone inflation data, as per the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to 10.6% (final) in October from 9.9% in September versus 10.7% preliminary forecasts, also favored the EURUSD bears the previous day.

Amid these plays, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off a six-week low before staying mostly unchanged at 3.77% whereas the S&P 500 Futures remains indecisive by the press time.

That said, a speech from ECB President Lagarde will be crucial for short-term EURUSD moves as the pair fades upside momentum. However, hawkish comments from Lagarde, as well as softer prints of the US Existing Home Sales for October, won’t hesitate to keep the bulls on the table.

Technical analysis

A two-week-old ascending support line near 1.0350 restricts immediate EURUSD downside. Even so, the inability to cross the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.0415, despite multiple attempts during the week, keeps the pair sellers hopeful.


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