Big breakouts across the market this week, including a solid upside break on GBP/JPY!
What goes up must come down, right? If that’s the case, where could traders potentially jump back in the uptrend to keep the bull party going?
As we always mention in every post now, a currency pair’s next move is determined by the fundamentals. And in Guppy’s case, speculation and outcome on the upcoming U.K. inflation update, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook, and broad risk sentiment will likely determine direction and volatility this week.
After doing the homework on fundamentals, for those with a bullish lean on GBP/JPY, you may want to wait for a pullback before going ham on the buy button. The pair already rocketed higher this week with a rally from 184.70 at the last dip to just below the 188.50 minor psychological level, which is two daily ATR and the type of move that may draw in profit takers ahead of top tier catalysts ahead.
If a pullback does occur and you expect volatility to slow or for buyers to likely be quick to jump on the dip, keep an eye out for bullish reversal candles between 186.40 – 187.10 before considering a long position risk management strategy. This area is roughly one daily ATR from the current peak, which may be enough of a dip for some traders to jump back in the uptrend.
If you expect volatility to stay elevated and/or a bearish catalyst for GBP to hit the wires, then watch the 185.50 – 186.00 area for potential bullish reversal patterns before working on a long strategy. This is an area where we see technical confluence between the broken November resistance area and the rising moving averages, raising the odds of support forming due to both technical and fundamental playas placing long orders in that area.
On the other side of the coin, if the pair falls beyond the rising moving averages and the bottom of the previous range, then that may draw in technical bears and set up a swing move lower. This may not be for you scalpers and day traders out there, but for fundamental players, this is a pattern to watch for especially if BOJ intervention jawboning or weak U.K data dominates the news flow.
What are your thoughts on GBP/JPY? Are you leaning bullish or bearish? We love to hear everyone’s ideas so feel free to drop a comment below and share your thoughts!