Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, assess the latest market developments:
EUR longs shrank
“US 10-year Note yields are 14bp below their highs this morning, despite the prospect of USD 111bn in 3, 10 and 30-year supply between now and Thursday. Not bad after a super-strong payroll report, even if it was accompanied by softer wage growth, Fed officials stressing that there’s less need to keep on hiking given the rise in yields and followed by the terrorist attack in Israel over the weekend. The dollar, unsurprisingly, is a little softer this morning.”
“CFTC data for last week showed the market getting longer USD, as EUR longs shrank, and GBP ones vanished. Crude oil prices are USD 3p/b higher than last Friday and won’t drive much dollar strength (NOK is softer today, though it remains the pick of the G10 currencies since Friday).”
“We’ll get more Fed speak today, NFIB small business sentiment as well as the New York Fed’s measure of year-ahead expected inflation, but the data point to focus on is Thursday’s CPI.”