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USD/JPY flat-lines below 148.50 amid the FX intervention fear

September 25, 2023 |

Share: USD/JPY oscillates in a narrow range around 148.35 on Monday. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda said that they must patiently maintain monetary easing. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector’s business activity. Traders await Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on Friday. The USD/JPY pair remains flat below the mid-148.00s during the early European session on Monday. Markets turn cautious amid the fear of FX intervention by the Japanese authorities. The pair currently trades around 148.35, losing 0.01% on the day. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Monday that Japan’s economy recovering moderately and the central bank’s basic stance is that they must patiently maintain monetary easing. Additionally, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki was out with some usual verbal intervention last week. He…    read more 

AUD/USD moves downward toward 0.6400, US Core PCE, Aussie CPI eyed

September 25, 2023 |

Share: AUD/USD trades lower near 0.6420 ahead of economic data from both nations. RBA is expected to be dovish on interest rates trajectory; putting pressure on the Aussie pair. The hawkish remarks made by Fed officials could bolster the US Dollar (USD). Investors await the US Core PCE, seeking further cues on the US inflationary pressure. AUD/USD retraces the previous session’s gains, trading lower around 0.6420 during the Asian session on Monday. However, the pair received upward support after the release of Australian PMI data on Friday, coupled with the soft US Dollar (USD). Australia’s PMI data exhibited a modest improvement on Friday. The preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for September reached 50.5, up from 47.8 in August. However, the Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2 from 49.6 in the previous reading. The Composite Index also showed improvement, rising from 48.0 to 50.2 prior. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s…    read more 

Week Ahead in FX (Sept. 25 – 29): Inflation Updates From the U.S. And the Eurozone

September 25, 2023 |

We heard from several central bankers last week and now it’s time to turn back to economic data for clues on the major economies’ growth and their central banks’ policy courses. Which data events can affect the major currencies in the next few days? Before all that, ICYMI, I’ve written a quick recap of the market themes that pushed currency pairs around last week. Check it! And now for the closely-watched economic indicators on the calendar this week: Eurozone inflation numbers We know from last week’s PMI reports that business growth in the Eurozone is shaky at best. This week, we’ll see if inflation has taken enough chill pill to allow the ECB to save its bullets and keep its interest rates steady. Headline inflation in Germany (Sept 28, 12:00 pm GMT) is expected to plummet from 6.1% y/y to 4.9% y/y in September though the monthly reading could speed…    read more 

EUR/GBP trades higher near 0.8700 to extend gains, focus on ECB Lagarde’s speech

September 25, 2023 |

Share: EUR/GBP looks to gain ground above 0.8700 psychological level. Eurozone PMI data provided support for the Euro. BoE’s surprise decision to pause its rate hike cycle has undermined the Pound Sterling (GBP). EUR/GBP continues the winning streak that began on Wednesday, trading higher around 0.8700 psychological level during the Asian session on Monday. The pair is continuing to experience upward support after the release of the Eurozone PMI data, coupled with the dovish policy decision by the Bank of England (BoE) in the previous week. HCOB Services PMI released on Friday, increased to 48.4 in September from 47.9 in August, surpassing the expected reading of 47.7. The Eurozone PMI Composite rose to 47.1 from 46.7 in August, exceeding the anticipated figure of 46.5 and reaching a two-month high. However, the HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index survey, showed that the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 43.4…    read more 

What Has Changed in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY?

September 25, 2023 |

US Dollar, Euro, Australian Dollar vs. Japanese Yen – Price Action: USD/JPY’s gains have slowed recently, but the uptrend isn’t over. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY’s uptrend remains intact. What are the key levels to watch in select JPY crosses? Recommended by Manish Jaradi Top Trading Lessons The status quo by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) at its meeting last week reasserts the prevailing weakness in the Japanese yen. JPY surrendered some of its gains after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its ultra-loose policy settings intact at its meeting on Friday, in line with expectations. For more details, see “Japanese Yen Tumbles as BOJ Maintains Status Quo: USD/JPY Eyes 150,” published September 22. BOJ’s persistent ultra-easy monetary policy diverges from its peers where central banks remain hawkish. Moreover, the broader growth outlook has converged, leaving little relative growth advantage to trigger a material appreciation in JPY. This suggests that unless the…    read more 

Manages to hold above 100-day SMA, bias seems tilted in favour of bulls

September 25, 2023 |

Share: USD/MXN struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range on Monday. The technical setup supports prospects for some meaningful upside amid a bullish USD. A break below last week’s swing low will shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. The USD/MXN pair manages to defend the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support through the Asian session on Monday, albeit struggles to gain any meaningful traction. Spot prices remain below the 17.2500 area, or last week’s swing high, which should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders. With technical indicators on the daily chart holding in the positive territory, a sustained strength beyond should pave the way for some meaningful upside and lift the USD/MXN pair to the 17.3810 area (September 12 peak). Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift spot prices further towards the next relevant hurdle near the…    read more 

WTI retraces recent gains near $89.70 on Fed officials’ hawkish remarks, US data eyed

September 25, 2023 |

Share: Crude prices ease from the recent gains ahead of US data releases. The hawkish remarks made by Fed officials could dampen the demand for the black gold. Russia implemented a temporary ban on gasoline and diesel fuel exports in an effort to stabilize its domestic market. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark eases from the recent gains, trading lower around $89.70 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Investors are anticipated to provide upward support to Crude oil prices due to their focus on a tighter supply outlook. This is exacerbated by Moscow’s temporary ban on fuel exports. However, there is also caution regarding the potential impact of further rate hikes on demand. The prices of black gold had risen more than 10% in the last three weeks due to a constrained production outlook from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The combined supply cuts…    read more 

China could do a lot to help reduce our perception of risk

September 25, 2023 |

Share: Speaking at the Tsinghua University in Beijing on Monday, European Union’s (EU) Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said “Europe’s economic ties with China are deep, but China could do a lot to help reduce our perception of risk.” Additional quotes “Their ambiguity allows too much room for interpretation.” “This means European companies struggle to understand their compliance obligations: a factor that significantly decreases business confidence and deters new investments in China.” This comes after the EU has long complained about a lack of level playing field in China and the politicization of the business environment. Market reaction The Euro is little affected by the above comments, leaving EUR/USD gyrating in a narrow range at around 1.0650, as of writing. Source link

Risk mood remains cautious, USD/SGD at nine-month high

September 25, 2023 |

Major US indices attempted to bounce off their respective near-term support last Friday, but gains failed to sustain into the latter half of the session as selling pressures dominate. This came as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent hawkish hold remains the overarching theme for the risk environment, which was further followed up by hawkish Fed officials’ comments to end the week. More notably, Governor Michelle Bowman, a Fed’s voting member, downplayed recent inflation progress and called for the need for additional rate hikes. US Treasury yields remain elevated near their 16-year high, despite some cooling on Friday. That kept a lid on gold prices, which have been struggling to overcome a key resistance confluence at the US$1,945 level, where its 100-day moving average (MA) stands alongside its Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. The formation of a near-term ascending triangle may still reflect buyers attempting to take back some control…    read more 

USD/CAD consolidates its gains below the 1.3500 mark, focus on Canadian GDP, US PCE data

September 25, 2023 |

Share: USD/CAD trades sideways near 1.3476 amid the USD weakness. Canadian Retail Sales for July rose by 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior; Core Retail Sales climbed by 1.0% vs. -0.7% prior. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector’s business activity. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will be a closely watched event. The USD/CAD pair consolidates its recent gains below the 1.3500 barrier during the early Asian session on Monday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and a decline in the US Treasury bond yields weigh on the pair. As of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3476, losing 0.05% on the day. Statistics Canada revealed on Friday that Canadian Retail Sales for July rose by 0.3% from the 0.1% in the previous reading, below the market consensus of 0.4%. While, the Core Retail Sales climbed 1.0% from a 0.7%…    read more 

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