Overall, crude oil and refined products have traded sideways for the month of October. Economists at Rabobank analyze Brent’s outlook.
Brent will touch, but not average, $100 at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024
Should gasoline demand continue to weaken, it would be a signal that the economic outlook has also worsened, sparking a financial sell-off of Brent and WTI of $10-12/bbl. However, this will be mitigated by the long-term physical outlook and ongoing geopolitical issues.
If macro concerns continue to weigh on prices, we could see the low $80s for Brent.
We still believe that Brent will touch, but not average, $100/bbl at some point in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.