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Australian Dollar hovers near psychological level, US PPI, Retail Sales eyed

November 15, 2023| Forex Market


  • Australian Dollar maintains its position around the 0.6500 psychological level.
  • Australia’s Wage Price Index (Q3) rose by 1.3% as expected and 4.0% annually.
  • US Dollar faces pressure as US inflation slowed more than anticipated.
  • China’s Industrial Production exhibited growth at 4.6%; Retail Sales experienced an uptick, reaching 7.6%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around the psychological level of 0.6500 on Wednesday. Tuesday’s US CPI data unveiled a more pronounced deceleration in US inflation than initially predicted, leading to a substantial decline in the US Dollar (USD). Consequently, the AUD/USD pair saw a notable increase.

Australia’s Wage Price Index came in on Wednesday, revealing that quarterly labor cost inflation grew 1.3% as expected compared to the previous reading of 0.8%. The year-over-year data showed an increase of 4.0% more than the anticipated 3.9%. The Australian jobs data will be published on Thursday, providing further insights.

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence report indicated a significant drop in consumer sentiment for November. The increasing pressure on data-guided policy adjustments will likely pose a challenge for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBI) board.

China’s Industrial Production (YoY) showed growth at 4.6% in October, a slight increase from the previous 4.5%, contrary to expectations of consistency. Retail Sales year-over-year saw an uptick to 7.6%, surpassing the anticipated 7.0%. These positive indicators in economic activities could offer support for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

The Dollar Index (DXY) recorded a 1.50% decline in the previous session, hitting its lowest point since early September. The Greenback faced additional pressure from increased risk appetite and a downward trend in US Treasury bonds. The US 10-year yield experienced a significant drop to an eight-week low at 4.43%.

The upcoming release of the US Producer Price Index and Retail Sales data later in the North American session has the potential to significantly influence the market. If these figures align with expectations, it might add further pressure on the Greenback.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar remains below a psychological level amid RBA’s uncertainty over policy rates

  • Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence declined by 2.6% in November, swinging from the previous growth of 2.9%.
  • RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Marion Kohler stated that the decline in inflation is expected to be slower than initially anticipated. This is attributed to the persistent high level of domestic demand and robust pressures from labor and other costs. Kohler emphasized the need for a tighter policy to address the challenges posed by elevated inflation.
  • RBA highlighted the challenges stemming from persistent inflationary pressures and a sluggish domestic economy in its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) last Friday.
  • RBA board acknowledges the financial struggles of many households. Budgets are indeed feeling the squeeze. In a twist of economic dynamics, the central bank painted a mixed picture by raising its inflation and GDP growth forecasts.
  • RBA increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 4.10% to a 12-year high of 4.35%, responding to the latest Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) for September, which indicated a notable increase of 5.6% compared to the expected 5.4% growth.
  • Australia’s TD Securities Inflation (YoY) eased at 5.1% in September from 5.7% prior.
  • Economists at the National Australia Bank (NAB) anticipate another 25 basis points hike in February following the Q4 inflation data. Additionally, NAB believes rate cuts will unlikely commence until November 2024.
  • The US-Sino Presidential meeting is on the horizon, and US President Joe Biden aims to rebuild military-to-military connections with China. The much-anticipated face-to-face between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco., marking their first in-person meeting in a year.
  • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed lower readings than expected, with the annual rate slowing from 3.7% to 3.2%, falling below the consensus forecast of 3.3%. The monthly CPI reduced to 0.0% from 0.4%.
  • The US Core CPI rose by 0.2% below the expectations of 0.3%, and the annual rate decreased to 4.0% from 4.1% prior.
  • US Monthly Budget Statement reported a deficit of $67B in October, compared to the expected deficit of $65B.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers near the 0.6500 major level backed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6490 on Wednesday aligned to the immediate resistance at 0.6500 psychological level, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6508. The 50% retracement is the next upside target at the 0.6582 level. On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could meet the support at the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lined up with the major level at 0.6400.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USD   0.02% 0.02% -0.11% -0.03% 0.10% -0.32% -0.02%
EUR -0.02%   0.00% -0.12% -0.05% 0.08% -0.34% -0.04%
GBP -0.03% 0.00%   -0.14% -0.06% 0.08% -0.35% -0.04%
CAD 0.11% 0.15% 0.15%   0.10% 0.22% -0.21% 0.10%
AUD 0.03% 0.06% 0.06% -0.08%   0.14% -0.29% 0.03%
JPY -0.10% -0.09% -0.09% -0.22% -0.15%   -0.43% -0.12%
NZD 0.31% 0.33% 0.33% 0.21% 0.28% 0.41%   0.30%
CHF 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% -0.09% -0.02% 0.12% -0.31%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Interest rates FAQs

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

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