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AUD/USD uptrend stalls ahead of the RBA’s decision

November 6, 2023| Forex Market


  • AUD/USD sees a halt in its rally in anticipation of the RBA’s potential rate hike.
  • Major Australian banks forecasting an increase from 4.10% to 4.35%.
  • Inflationary pressures and strong retail sales figures bolster the case for further tightening by the RBA.
  • RBA officials’ hawkish comments have primed markets for a rate adjustment, adding to the upward pressure on the Aussie.

AUD/USD rally stalls around the 0.6520s area as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting later during Tuesday’s Asian session at 03:30 GMT. The rise in US Treasury bond yields, contrary to Aussie’s, was the main reason behind the pair’s 0.36% losses as it trades at around 0.6480s.

Australian Dollar’s ascent pauses as markets await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting, with expectations of a rate hike

The RBA is expected to resume interest-rate hikes from 4.10% to 4.35%, as revealed by four of the biggest Australian banks, like ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and NAB. The latest inflation report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) witnessed a jump in inflation in Q3, above forecasts but below the 2% plus-or-minus 1% band.

Even though that data wasn’t a reason for increasing rates, it was the September monthly CPI, rising above 5.6% YoY, exceeding August. That, along with a solid Retail Sales report, spurred speculations that the RBA would further tighten monetary conditions.

Comments from RBA officials, namely Christopher Kent saying the board “may need to raise interest rates in the future to bring inflation down,” alongside RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock suggesting that the RBA board would not hesitate to hike rates “if there is a material upward revision to the inflation outlook,” had further cemented the likelihood of an adjustment in rates.

Read more: Australia Interest Rate Decision Preview: RBA set to tighten further after four straight meetings on hold

On the US front, a scarce economic calendar would leave AUD/USD traders adrift to Federal Reserve’s (Fed) officials’ speeches, the Trade Balance, and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

After printing a two-month high at 0.6522, the AUD/USD could rise past that level and threaten to hit 0.6600. That would depend on the RBA’s decision. If the central bank raises rates and keeps the door open, look out for a test of the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6614. On the flip side, a surprising hold, the AUD/USD could plunge toward last Friday’s low of 0.6419, as most market participants expect a hike.


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